Iowa Fans Expect Hawkeyes to Advance to Elite Eight
· Yahoo Sports
It is game day in Houston and for the first time in 27 years, the Hawkeyes are playing in the Sweet 16 with a chance for a trip to the Elite Eight on the line. As fate would have it, Iowa is facing off with our neighbors to the west with the Nebraska Cornhuskers doubling down on their first ever NCAA Tournament win with their first trip to the Sweet 16 in program history.
Visit afrikasportnews.co.za for more information.
This is a matchup of two teams who are familiar with each other after Iowa and Nebraska squared off twice in the regular season. The Hawkeyes took home the W in the first meeting in Iowa City, playing exactly the way they want to. It was a 57-52 slug fest and Iowa’s best win of the regular season. In the rematch over in Lincoln, the Huskers sped things up and got up by as many as 11 before the Hawkeyes clawed their way back to force overtime, ultimately falling 84-75.
Now it’s time for the rubber match in what is arguably the biggest basketball game ever played between these two programs. So, how are we feeling about things heading into the night?
Iowa Fans Are Believers
After knocking off defending national champion Florida on a buzzer-beating three from Alvaro Folgueiras, Iowa fans are riding an emotional tidal wave into Thursday night’s Sweet 16 matchup against Nebraska. And this week’s poll results reflect that energy: 77% of Iowa fans believe the Hawkeyes will beat Nebraska and advance to the Elite Eight.
Is it blind optimism? Perhaps the feeling of just playing with house money? Or maybe this is a fanbase that has liked what they’ve seen in this matchup the first two times and feels like the attention to detail on the glass and revived defensive energy in the NCAA Tournament means this is a group of Hawkeyes that can simply get it done.
While Nebraska remains favored by 1.5 points according to FanDuel Sportsbook (after opening -2.5), this is a matchup that seems perfect for the Hawkeyes in this spot. The over/under started low and has continued to fall to 131.5 total points, giving us an implied final score of Nebraska 66.5, Iowa 65.
But here’s the thing: Iowa is 18-1 in games this season where they’ve held their opponent under 70 points. If opponents top that 70 point mark? Iowa is 5-11. The two prior matchups with Nebraska fall in line with those trends. If Vegas thinks this one is low scoring, it’s hard to bet against the Hawkeyes.
Nationally? Iowa’s Still The Underdog
Now here’s where it gets a little interesting. While Iowa fans are brimming with confidence, the national audience is decidedly less impressed.
When asked who will win the South Region, Houston leads at 56%, followed by Illinois at 20%, Nebraska at 16%, and Iowa dead last at just 8%. That makes sense given the seeds and the odds to win each of tonight’s games. But it also means that means nationally, fans give Iowa roughly a 1-in-12 chance of cutting down the nets in the South Region. For context, Nebraska — tonight’s opponent — is seen as twice as likely to win the region as Iowa.
I get it. Houston is the 2-seed, Illinois has been a buzzsaw, and Nebraska has 28 wins. Iowa is a 9-seed that went .500 in Big Ten play. On paper, we don’t belong here. But March isn’t played on paper, and this team has already proven that the hard way — just ask Florida.
The Pick
The rubber match tips off tonight at 6:30 PM CT on TBS from Toyota Center in Houston. As noted, FanDuel Sportsbook has the Huskers favored by 1.5 with an over/under at 131.5 total points. Iowa is +105 to win outright while Nebraska is sitting at -126.
Some betting trends worth noting: Iowa is 4-1 against the spread in their last five games against Nebraska, and the over has hit in seven of the last 10 head-to-head meetings. Nebraska has been a moneyline favorite 23 times this season and won 21 of those games. Iowa has been the underdog 11 times and won just twice. Make of that what you will.
Nebraska -1.5 is essentially a coin flip with a slight lean toward the Huskers, and honestly, that feels right for a third meeting between two teams that know each other this well. The total at 131.5 suggests a grind-it-out defensive affair, which tracks with Game 1 (Iowa won 57-52) more than Game 2 (Nebraska won 84-75 in OT) and that’s where I thin the tell is.
This is a race to 70 points. If Iowa can slow this thing down to a few possessions, it’s really hard to bet against them. If the Huskers can speed this up and get themselves more bites at the apple, they’re the higher seed for a reason.
So, where am I coming down on this one?
This team already beat the best team in the country four days ago. Nebraska is really, really good. But they’re not Florida. They’re not the defending national champions. And Iowa has something no one else in this bracket has: the experience of already pulling off the impossible once this tournament.
I think the Hawkeyes are in Nebraska’s head and I think we finally get a Bennett Stirtz game like we saw in the tournament a season ago.
My pick: Iowa 67, Nebraska 66. The magic continues in Houston. In heaven (and after tonight, in Houston) there is no beer. We’re partying like it’s 1987.